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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a peace deal negotiated with American diplomats are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys are expected to submit the terms to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the war is not guaranteed, particularly because Russia's absence from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy said that the American legislature was anticipated to vote on defense assurances and that a complete package of documents might be ready “imminently.” Subsequently, the U.S. would hold consultations with Russian representatives, potentially followed by summit-level talks as soon as this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“We are counting on five documents. Several pertain to security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, voted on and approved by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to journalists. He clarified that these assurances would “reflect article 5” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, American representatives declined to give specific details regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or the consequences if Moscow attempted to seize additional territory after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the United States does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European countries said in a unified declaration that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting maritime security, potentially by conducting operations within its territory.”

However, they did not proposing these measures would constitute guarantees equivalent to Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Russia is near accepting the kind of arrangement being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Russian government stated it had not seen the specifics of the proposals on security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that the country would never accept forces of NATO member states operating in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts remains the territorial question. One proposal centers on Ukraine relinquishing the areas of the Donbas region it still holds, while Ukraine wants to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. You know, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president remarked following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, headed by two senior advisors, has proposed a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russian troops would not advance, with the demilitarised area becoming “a free economic zone.” Moscow has suggested it could use internal security units rather than the army in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ is not controlled by Russia. Not legally or in practice will we recognise the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” said Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the land question. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a compromise solution such as a special economic area could be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a national vote. The major impediment is expected to arise when the proposals are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face exactly what we are encountering on our flight right now – instability,” said the president, recording the comments as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with more weapons if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the United States,” he added.