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Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.

That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate

The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.

Debates encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.

"The Irish government should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."

Call for Wider Dialogue

Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."