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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".

Nighttime Reality

As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.

Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.

Persistent Threats

Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.

Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.

Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, continue.

Tactical Assessments

It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.

The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its advantage.

Existing Situation

Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These opposing factors are influencing discussions.

Assessment and Future

It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.

While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.